A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
